Ah, that's the downside of wanting to peek into the future of the web, there is too much of it.
It's long, so I'll let you cheat with bullet points:
- Social fatigue is approaching
- The web gets crowded with giants, space is lacking
- Governments and users don't really like giants
- This could be a bubble waiting to burst
- It it goes *pOp* everybody will feel it. Hard.
I intended to name this post Google VS Apple, but some recent reading have seriously changed the editorial line.
This month has seen a cartload of surprising announcements, with in the top 3: Google Buzz, Goggle ISP service and Facebook Mail.
Seems that right now, everybody is trying to do everything in the same time.
Here, I don't think anything is obvious or even less obvious, because it's too early. I could state something like "The web as we know it is going to change drastically, and it's happening now" But that's even beyond the obvious.
Now, what's interesting
1) Aggregation VS Deggregation, social fatigue
I've been browsing my way since before 2000. No boasting here. Just to say that I remember something, look:
- At the beginning was a panel of various sites, later cross advertising in rings and clubs. I call that Deggregation, where you centralise the information without actually having one single info pool. It works just like the Internet.
- Later on, came Friendster and the likes, with myriads of sharing tools centralizing the data to several disting pools, that's aggregation.
- Deggregation came again, with the blogging phenomenon. Everyone had one, and crosse advertized with his friends
- Aggreggation again through Facebook and the Web 2.0 as we know it.
Do you see a pattern?
When users get tired to have nothing left for themselves, they may turn back to services that allow them to just be. When they will be tired of depending on one or two platforms that communicate with a multitude of services to disseminate their data, they may just chose one. Or none.
Me? I am tired of hearing Google, Facebook, Yahoo and the likes screaming in both my ears "Give me your photos, let me be your host, please pleaaase, I'm so much better than the other one".
2) Panorama
Sorry, I'm going to bother you with stupid graphs, but with some luck they are clear enough.
Here is what a part of the web looked like in the end of 2009:
And here is a picture of how it has evolved until today:
Now we are talking. Everybody wants to do everything at once.
Twitter? They play in their corner, patiently waiting to be bought by someone.
3) Bubble Bursting GolemsWhat about my data, what do I have to do now, where do I need to go If I want to do...well..anything??
The way data are uploaded now reminds me of a parking lot where I would need to park my wheels, body and engine in different places, and need paperwork to reassemble it once I want to go out.And oh, do you see the bubble growing? The multitude of services being created around these actors? See how bubbles tend to burst?
Why should they burst? Because of what I call the Golem complex. For a better understanding of the thing, look at this third annoying graph:
Now, do you like what you see? I don't.
Google is going horizontal, and godspeed, clearly targeting all possible ways of communication
Facebook, which has a much larger user base than GMail, is doing the same, at a much quieter pace, understanding that their mobile presence is enough.
Apple is still ruling the Real World, strong of its all time experience in hardware.
Facebook and Google have become mega-structures, (human created Golems) and they are expending everyday.
Now, who isn't afraid of one enormous entity ruling over the world of communications? That's what I call the Golem Complex. And it could be rule changing when users get finally scared enough to find something better.
Who said Iran, who said China? 4) The role of The Enablers (the needle to poke the bubble)
I see three enablers here: Microsoft, Yahoo and The Censors.
Microsoft has the technology, all their money comes from OS, software and servers. The rest seems to be just for fun. Yahoo, has the technology, their chat protocol has become a standard.
Both have a tremendous user base, but by staying away from the SNS battle (or just sucking at it) they are giving way to the others. Worse, they form alliances (Microsoft and Facebook for adds Yahoo! streams to Twitter and YouTube-Google- and so on and so forth). They let Facebook and Google do their thing, go monopolistic and scare the hell out the FCC.
The Censors are all the copyright freaks from the music/movies/books industry, waging a sore war on the Bad Usaaars, and lobbying governments to filter the web and enforce THEIR laws (France, soon Spain, let's pray it doesn't get global). They let the users get disgusted of what the internet is becoming, scared for their privacy and if it spreads, one day massively move for services that doesn't collaborate with the NSA. Yes Google seem to do it.
5) A business based on thin air
Well, won't get too expensive on this. The billions of dollars generated by online advertising are based on thin air. Microsoft sells goods, so does Apple, they can fail at other things.
Google or Facebook... will drag start-ups and third parties on a landslide of bankcrupcy if users stop using them. Oh, and yes, the online add business is declining, but no body seems to care.
6) So, how does it burst?
Lets see
- We are near the apex of an aggregation trend
- Users might get tired of too many entry points to share their content
- Major actors are getting too big to be trusted
- Goverments are getting pissed off
- Online advertisement might collapse, and will of Google or Facebook commits to big a mistake
- *pOp*
But yeah... I could be wrong. Man I hope so. Wait and see.
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