Internet Wars, IT, Web
- Thursday, January 28, 2010 - 2 comments
2010: The Internet Wars - Social Media Fatigue - Geolocation Gold Rush
I just found my lost crystal ball, it's time for me to make my own previsions about what's gonna happen in 2010 and be proven utterly wrong in 2011 (hopefully not, though)
You've probaby already read this kid of article before. But they all (well most of them) have something in common: they state the obvious and put safe bets on the table: "2010 Will Be Social"... thank you very much.
So here I'm going to try and be daring, and tell you everything about my hunches.
Social media
The obvious:
Just take a look at the Facebook's statistics. More than 350 millions users, sending 8 friends requests per month and spending 55 per day on the site. That's just Facebook. If you browse around a bit you know that Twitter is ever growing, new services are building around it every month, and the advance in mobile broadband being what it is, it won't stop there... so yeah, that won't stop
The less obvious
Everybody is enjoying the social rush for now. For now. Privacy issues are arising (later on I'll come to that) and one there is one thing everybody seems to ignore: the noise. Real time social information is extremely dense, and if Facebook has some answers for it, Twitter has absolutely none and relies on third parties to sieve the unwanted data.
I've seen users complaining already, and I'm ready to bet that the noise is going to be one major factor of social media fatigue for 2010, let's say we will hear about it during the second quarter.
Another thing that seems to be overlooked is the redundancy factor. The web is opening itself, we are much less depending on log-in and account set up procedures, but there are downsides.
First off, now your tweets are search-able, we are seeing a growing amount of content-farm-like websites based on real-time content only gathering real-time info and placing commercials, that's bad for search and considerably increases the noise.
Then, there is something I'd call data dissemination. Not so long ago you would share your pics on Flickr, your notes on your blog and you life/self promotion on Facebook.
Now, I feel confused, where should I put what? Tweetphoto , Flickr, twitpics? Another service?
Where should I post what in order to be seen? What service shall I use in order to do what I want to do? How to manage them all?
The risky:
I'm writing it, I don't care if you call me a fool, but I see a social media bubble burst in the end of 2010. With many services shutting down and maybe a big surprise, like twitter being abandoned for something better yet to come out.
Why the war?
Because Google and Apple are beginning to understand that they've left the social aspect of the internet behind, because Yahoo! and Microsoft don't want to be left behind. Because ruling the social web give you access to a considerable mass of behavioral data, and everybody wants a share of that cake.
Outcome?
On this particular issue the outcome will benefit the users. The concept is user centric, hence the only solution to gain followers is to please them. Good for us.
Geo-localization
The obvious: It's booming, it will keep on booming. Duh! I won't harass you with statistics here or there, you can Google it and it will show. FourSquare is expending godspeed, people seem to love the idea, and yes it's practical. No need to emphasize...
The less obvious:
Geo-Localization is a pretty new concept, as in all pretty new concepts, its implementation will keep on following the pioneer->copycat->leader model. What does it mean? It means FourSquare might not be the leader in it's niche anymore in the end of 2010.
The risky:
Mid-2010, a serious contender to the FourSquare might be launched. It will have much more features, be more connected, and it will surpass the leader in term of active users in the end of the year. Later on it will merge geo-localization to augmented reality all in the cloud.
Why the war?
Because of the pioneer->copycat->leader model, and because the technology is still young and attractive enough for a lot of start-ups to still be able to build upon it. Let's not forget the giants will also want their shares. Buyouts are to be expected.
Outcomes?
Still positive for the users, same reason as earlier, user centric services must spoil their members. But... what about the privacy concerns? I see news about Geo-Stalkers comming in next summer.
Stay tuned for the next topics of the Internet Wars:
Follow me on Twitter
You've probaby already read this kid of article before. But they all (well most of them) have something in common: they state the obvious and put safe bets on the table: "2010 Will Be Social"... thank you very much.
So here I'm going to try and be daring, and tell you everything about my hunches.
Social media
The obvious:
Just take a look at the Facebook's statistics. More than 350 millions users, sending 8 friends requests per month and spending 55 per day on the site. That's just Facebook. If you browse around a bit you know that Twitter is ever growing, new services are building around it every month, and the advance in mobile broadband being what it is, it won't stop there... so yeah, that won't stop
The less obvious
Everybody is enjoying the social rush for now. For now. Privacy issues are arising (later on I'll come to that) and one there is one thing everybody seems to ignore: the noise. Real time social information is extremely dense, and if Facebook has some answers for it, Twitter has absolutely none and relies on third parties to sieve the unwanted data.
I've seen users complaining already, and I'm ready to bet that the noise is going to be one major factor of social media fatigue for 2010, let's say we will hear about it during the second quarter.
Another thing that seems to be overlooked is the redundancy factor. The web is opening itself, we are much less depending on log-in and account set up procedures, but there are downsides.
First off, now your tweets are search-able, we are seeing a growing amount of content-farm-like websites based on real-time content only gathering real-time info and placing commercials, that's bad for search and considerably increases the noise.
Then, there is something I'd call data dissemination. Not so long ago you would share your pics on Flickr, your notes on your blog and you life/self promotion on Facebook.
Now, I feel confused, where should I put what? Tweetphoto , Flickr, twitpics? Another service?
Where should I post what in order to be seen? What service shall I use in order to do what I want to do? How to manage them all?
The risky:
I'm writing it, I don't care if you call me a fool, but I see a social media bubble burst in the end of 2010. With many services shutting down and maybe a big surprise, like twitter being abandoned for something better yet to come out.
Why the war?
Because Google and Apple are beginning to understand that they've left the social aspect of the internet behind, because Yahoo! and Microsoft don't want to be left behind. Because ruling the social web give you access to a considerable mass of behavioral data, and everybody wants a share of that cake.
Outcome?
On this particular issue the outcome will benefit the users. The concept is user centric, hence the only solution to gain followers is to please them. Good for us.
Geo-localization
The obvious: It's booming, it will keep on booming. Duh! I won't harass you with statistics here or there, you can Google it and it will show. FourSquare is expending godspeed, people seem to love the idea, and yes it's practical. No need to emphasize...
The less obvious:
Geo-Localization is a pretty new concept, as in all pretty new concepts, its implementation will keep on following the pioneer->copycat->leader model. What does it mean? It means FourSquare might not be the leader in it's niche anymore in the end of 2010.
The risky:
Mid-2010, a serious contender to the FourSquare might be launched. It will have much more features, be more connected, and it will surpass the leader in term of active users in the end of the year. Later on it will merge geo-localization to augmented reality all in the cloud.
Why the war?
Because of the pioneer->copycat->leader model, and because the technology is still young and attractive enough for a lot of start-ups to still be able to build upon it. Let's not forget the giants will also want their shares. Buyouts are to be expected.
Outcomes?
Still positive for the users, same reason as earlier, user centric services must spoil their members. But... what about the privacy concerns? I see news about Geo-Stalkers comming in next summer.
Stay tuned for the next topics of the Internet Wars:
- Augmented reality - The gadgets attack
- Google - Why it needs to evolve
- Apple VS Google - We're caught in the middle
- The Fall of Firefox
- Something wrong with DRM
- Privacy - Will you still have any?
- Online marketing's deceptions
Follow me on Twitter
Good thought Dude! Keep writing!
Mind-boggling.